Impact of Expected Utility Forecasting in Science Grants

Impact of Expected Utility Forecasting in Science Grants

Federation of American Scientists

In our pilot, we recruited a small cohort of reviewers to review a proposal based on their subject matter expertise. We chose to use an exponential scale with a base of 2 for defining the expected utility of each proposal. For each proposal, reviewers were asked to submit their forecasts on Metaculus’ website. This is a logical approach to improving the rigor of peer review. Our pilot study was conducted in fall of 2023.

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